Analysis and predictions for the European vape market from 2023 to 2028
According to overseas data, the global vape market was valued at $57.02 billion in 2021, with Europe leading the market. It is projected that Europe will hold a significant share in the global vapor products market by 2028, indicating a high growth trend in the region.
Analysis of the European market situation in 2023 :
Rapid growth regions:
Disposable vapes have swept through the European and American markets, particularly experiencing significant growth in Europe. Data from countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy indicate a positive retail trend for vapes in these regions. In terms of export volumes, Europe remains a rapid or high-growth target area. It is recommended to pay particular attention to fast-growing regions such as the United Kingdom and Germany.
Based on the basic data, the United Kingdom sells over 400 million vapes annually. Similarly, countries like Germany also sell billions of vapes each year.In addition, recent data from compliant exports reported by the Shenzhen Customs for the first two months of this year indicate “rapid growth” in exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom. For example, the export value to the United Kingdom increased by 90% year-on-year, accounting for 14.4% of the total. Germany’s export value increased by 713.6%, accounting for 3.4% of the total. The Netherlands saw a growth of 266.4% in exports, accounting for 1.9% of the total, and Russia in Eastern Europe experienced a 271.2% growth in exports, accounting for 8.7% of the total.
Expansion of channels in Europe:
Recent news from some European countries, such as the United Kingdom, indicates frequent opening of vape stores. Not only are the stores expanding, but the retail methods are also diversifying!
For example, a UK-based vape store called Steve’s Shack aims to focus not only on vapes. Some of the people showcasing their products include poet Tony Bolland and floral designer Beverley Elsop, with plans for a monthly artist. There is a sign in the store that says “Only Good Vibes Allowed,” and they welcome more businesses to use their space, turning it into a social hub. The store aims to provide customers with a more personalized experience, going beyond just being an vape store.
2023-2028 Analysis and Forecast of the European E-cigarette Market
In the past, it was difficult to introduce pod-based e-cigarettes into the European market, apart from traditional tobacco products. However, over the past five years, the European e-cigarette market has been highly regarded. The analysis and forecast of the European e-cigarette market from 2023 to 2028 is worth the attention of e-cigarette industry practitioners.
Recently, the key point is that disposable e-cigarettes are taking over the European market, bringing about “significant ecological changes” to the local market. Pod-based e-cigarettes have struggled to gain traction in the European market due to factors such as insufficient flavor, vapor production, complicated pod replacement, inconvenience, oil leakage, and high prices, which hindered repeat purchases.
Previously, e-cigarettes were not well-received in Europe due to their low nicotine content and the need to refill the device once the e-liquid ran out. However, the introduction of disposable e-cigarettes in Europe has brought about a significant transformation. These devices are disposable and do not require regular refilling of e-liquid. Once fully utilized, they can be discarded and replaced with a new one. This allows consumers to try different flavors with disposable e-cigarettes. Disposable e-cigarettes are taking over the European e-cigarette market.
Currently, many e-cigarette shops in Europe, offering a wide selection of disposable e-cigarettes, have gained significant popularity. Disposable e-cigarettes have also become more environmentally friendly and versatile, as they can be both disposable and refillable or rechargeable. Moreover, disposable e-cigarettes are also legal.
E-cigarette brands use synthetic nicotine to form the base of e-liquids. This not only enables them to sell e-cigarettes safely but also allows consumers to try different e-cigarette flavors without worrying about legal issues. Emerging vape brands such as Elf Bar, Geek Bar, Hyde, Esco Bar, and Ravape are leading the industry in Europe, catering to the diverse flavor preferences of European users.
With a population of 740 million in Europe, a 10% penetration of e-cigarettes would result in 70 million e-cigarette users. The gender ratio of smokers in Europe is almost equal. Countries with a high prevalence of heavy smokers include Sweden, Poland, Croatia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Lithuania. The European market has approximately 100 million adult smokers, with an annual cigarette consumption expenditure of around $6.4 billion. Additionally, most of the countries/regions with the highest per capita tobacco consumption are in Europe.
Five foreign consulting firms have predicted double-digit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the future e-cigarette market size in Europe, primarily driven by the sales of disposable e-cigarettes. Many industry experts have a positive outlook on the European market. Tobacco giants such as British American Tobacco are increasing their investment and market development efforts in Europe. Furthermore, some European countries, like Italy, have a strong preference for tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes.
According to the latest research by the Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (GSTHR) project, the number of global e-cigarette users increased by 20% from 2020 to 2021. The organization estimates that there are currently 82 million e-cigarette users worldwide, with a significant portion of the market share in Europe, apart from the 11 million users in the United States and 7 million users in China.
Most countries have a relatively low penetration rate of e-cigarettes. For example, the United Kingdom has the highest e-cigarette penetration rate, which is only 7%. Out of 74 million tobacco users, 43 million use e-cigarettes. This accounts for less than 10% of the total population of 673.27 million.
Currently, the United States is the largest e-cigarette market globally, valued at $10.3 billion, followed by Western Europe ($6.6 billion), the Asia-Pacific region ($4.4 billion), and Eastern Europe ($1.6 billion). The smallest markets are the Middle East and Africa ($490 million), Latin America ($122 million), and Oceania ($118 million).
With the overall lenient regulatory environment of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and the introduction of the “Smoke-Free 2040” plan, vaporized e-cigarettes are expected to play a significant role in achieving the plan. Compared to the US Premarket Tobacco Product Application (PMTA), the TPD application process in the European Union is simpler and more cost-effective, with a lower level of brand and manufacturer binding. Currently, out of the 46 European countries, only 7 have restrictions or a complete ban on flavors, and the Swedish Parliament rejected the government’s proposed ban on flavored e-cigarettes in June 2022. Under the “Smoke-Free 2040” plan, vaporized e-cigarettes may become a crucial driver in achieving the goals.
According to predictions, between 2021 and 2030, the global market share of disposable products is estimated to be approximately 35.69% (Grand View Research), second only to the largest market, North America. This year’s World Health Organization data also shows that Europeans have the highest smoking and drinking rates globally. Within the European Union, 30% of the population smokes.
Therefore, between 2023 and 2028, the vape market in Europe should focus on several countries, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Spain. It is also important to pay attention to the Eastern European market, including countries like Albania and Bulgaria, as there is still significant retail channel space available.
In any case, the European vape market is entering a period of change between 2023 and 2028. In the coming years, the global vape market cannot afford to overlook Europe. Currently, the usage rates for vapes are often higher in Northern and Western European countries, with larger market capacities and higher employment numbers in the industry. Conversely, the Eastern European market is still largely undeveloped and presents a blue ocean of opportunities that should be taken into consideration
Predictions for the characteristics of the European vape market from 2023 to 2028 are as follows:
The industry scale of the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany will lead the way, with Europe’s future growth rate expected to reach double digits.
In terms of individual countries, the United Kingdom has the largest vape market, followed by France, Italy, and Germany.
In terms of regions, the market size in Western Europe is much larger than that in Eastern Europe.
Technological innovation and product diversification: The vape industry will continue to introduce innovative products and technologies to provide safer, more convenient, and more consumer-tailored vape products. It is expected that there will be more high-performance devices, improved battery life, and a greater variety of flavor options.
Evolution of regulations and regulatory environment: Regulations and regulatory environments for vapes may change across European countries. It is expected that more comprehensive regulatory frameworks will be established to ensure product quality and safety, and to strengthen restrictions on the use of vapes by minors.
Among them, the UK government has a positive attitude toward vapes, with a focus on the development of vaporized vapes. In 2015, PHE (Public Health England) stated that vapes are 95% less harmful than traditional cigarettes. The UK has improved its official stance and is currently promoting vapes as smoking cessation tools. Vaporized vapes are a key focus in the UK’s new tobacco development, while HNB (heat-not-burn) products are managed similarly to cigarettes. In Europe, the UK has launched the “Smoke-Free 2030” plan, aiming to reduce the smoking rate to 5% or below by 2030, with the current smoking rate in the UK at 13%.
The industry scale in the UK has shown fluctuations and is on the rise, with differences in user profiles between underage and adult users.
In terms of regions, the market size is largest in the northwest and southeast regions of the UK, with London and West Midlands showing the fastest growth.
In terms of products, the sales of disposable vapes have increased from £110 million in 2020 to £670 million in 2022, capturing incremental space in the pod-based and open-system categories. Reasons for underage users choosing vapes include novelty, flavors, and imitation.
In the European market, the revision of the TPD (Tobacco Products Directive) regulations for vapes within the EU system is underway. This may determine the access rules for vapes within the EU system for the next 10 years. There may also be more unwelcome regulations, including flavor and online sales bans, an increase in the minimum age, and an internet advertising ban.
In conclusion, the European vape market is expected to continue growing from 2023 to 2028, with trends such as technological innovation, product diversification, regulatory evolution, and increased market competition.
